It’s been a good NBA regular season, and it’s not over yet! As of when I’m writing this, Western Conference seeds 4-8 all have the exact same number of losses. In one day, a team could go from home-court advantage to being the road team in a play-in game. That’s ridiculous!
Thankfully, this will be my final awards piece before we get back to actual basketball. I’m ready to write about something else. Part I of my awards can be found here.
Clutch Player of the Year
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Truthfully, I’m not sure what the point of this award is. Given that there are still a few games left in the season, it’s possible that someone could steal this extremely small-sample-size award; clutch shots this late in the year might matter more. Imagine someone hits a shot getting their team out of the play-in race in the West on the last day of the season? That’s about as clutch a regular-season shot as you can get.
Right now, the stats overwhelmingly say it’s Jalen Brunson. He’s averaging the most points in clutch minutes and shooting over 50% from the field, and nobody else has anything like that combination of volume and accuracy.
Let’s not waste any more time here.
Rookie of the Year
1. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
2. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
3. Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies
This was the second-hardest award to choose this season. I don’t feel great about where I landed.
But no other rookie quite checks the boxes like Zaccharie Risacher. Wells is a better defender, and Castle is putting up bigger numbers, but Risacher has few holes in his game and has become a very important player for an Atlanta Hawks team that’s been trying to win all season long.
Since January 6th, Risacher has averaged 14.0 points per game compared to Castle’s 17.3 points, but he’s been legitimately efficient: 49% from the field and 40% from deep, adding up to 60% true shooting (above league average). Castle, meanwhile, was well below average at 53% true shooting.
Risacher isn’t quite the individual guardsman Castle is, but he’s a more advanced team defender. He flies around in transition on both ends, a perpetual motion machine:
Risacher is a much better passer than his low assist totals would lead you to believe, but the Hawks primarily use him as a play finisher. He’s already a master at off-ball movement, sprinting around the court creating space for himself and others:
He turned 20 today (happy birthday, Zacch!); more on-ball opportunities could arise in the next few seasons. It’s also worth pointing out that he’s the only rookie with three 30+ point games; while his path to true stardom is murkier than some other rookies due to a less-developed on-ball game, it’s not crazy to think he could be a 20-point scorer at some point in his career.
Stephon Castle is by far the most exciting new player, and he’ll likely win the award in real life — voters rarely look past top-line box scores for the frosh. I’m okay with it. Castle’s a good individual defender still learning how to play team defense in the NBA, and he’s been given free rein to soak up usage and put up numbers — which he does in style. He’s got Koenigsegg torque in his muscular frame:
Castle has the tallest ceiling but arguably the most to prove of the high-level rookies. Much will come down to his three-point shot. Defenses already ignore him on the perimeter, and for all his thrilling dunks and nifty roll-man plays, guards that aren’t three-point threats are a liability in today’s NBA unless they have overwhelming advantages in other areas, which Castle currently does not. He looked more willing to shoot from deep than I expected; hopefully, he can use the offseason to adjust the rangefinder.
Jaylen Wells doesn’t have raw counting stats that pop off the page, but he does sport the best EPM of any rookie. He’s undoubtedly had the toughest defensive assignments night in and night out. Every game, he has to guard guys with signature shoes, and he’s done well enough to be a key player in the Grizzlies’ top-10 defense.
Wells will earn some first-place votes. Despite a late-season swoon as he ran headfirst into the rookie wall, he still has higher season-long efficiency numbers than Risacher or Castle, even though he’s doing less overall than those two.
Defensive Player of the Year
I have been extremely stressed about this award for weeks. Victor Wembanyama was the clear-cut winner until his season ended. Alex Caruso has a very strong case, but he, too, won’t qualify.
After those two, who stands out? Allow me to quote myself from a piece I did last week for Locked On:
Draymond Green is 35 and having, what, the sixth-best defensive year of his career? Evan Mobley is routinely isolated and attacked at the end of games. Lu Dort isn’t the best defender on the Thunder at his own position. Dyson Daniels is a one-trick pony (a very cool trick, but still!).
Advanced stats can’t make up their minds on these guys (and are unreliable anyway), and while all obviously shine on tape, nobody has looked infallible. There isn’t an obvious right answer (Martim Pardal had a good visualization of the numbers breakdown for most candidates, if you want to get nitty-gritty-dirty).
There are plenty of good reasons to go with any of those players. If you want someone else, Rudy Gobert has a very underrated case, and we didn’t even talk about Jaren Jackson Jr. or my guy Ivica Zubac, whom at least one publication has declared worthy of the award. But as I’ve hinted at for a while, I’m going in a different direction.
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